Don't simplify anything beyond what is necessary.Be suspicious of knowledge you derive from data.Mediocristan (average) where there is no person tall/heavy enough to distort group averages Extremistan (real world) where Black Swans exist and have a huge impact (notion of Bill Gates distorting average wealth in a group) vs.The problem lies not in the nature of the events, but in the way we perceive them.Categories are necessary to survive but people get in trouble when they don't realize the fuzziness of boundaries.Our minds are incredible explanation machines - often creating stories to fit the facts.Triplet of opacity - the illusion of understanding (world is more complicated than we realize) retrospective distortion (can only assess matters after the fact) overvaluation of "factual" information.You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, the generator of history Read books are far less valuable than unread ones (antilibrary).Platonicity - mistaking the map for the territory, forcing categorizations and forms when it is inappropriate (almost always).To the author, the rare event = uncertainty.Also, people tend to only learn facts and not rules People often get into trouble as they tend to learn the precise, not the general.Tinker as much as you possibly can to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as possible You can set yourself up to collect serendipitous Black Swans (of the positive kind) by maximizing your exposure to them.Certain professionals, while believing they are experts, are in fact not.What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.It is much easier to deal with the Black Swan problem if we focus on robustness to errors rather than improving predictions.Black Swan logic makes what you don't know far more relevant than what you do know.Literally, just about everything of significance might quality as a black swan.Human nature makes us concoct explanations for black swans after he fact, making it explainable and predictable.
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